tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 42 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1366 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 1366 EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 955 JFK 21:30 → DCA 22:59 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time
Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.
UA 1366 United Flight history → EWR 06:00 IAD 07:22 3% 2% 0.6% 96%
DL 5770 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 06:05 DCA 07:23 4% 1% 0.6% 89%
YX 5809 Republic JFK 10:14 IAD 11:42 5% 2% 0.6% no record
AA 4487 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 06:39 DCA 08:05 5% 1% 0.6% 85%
AA 4671 American flown by Republic Flight history → JFK 06:45 DCA 08:14 6% 1% 0.6% 67%
YX 5779 Republic JFK 16:29 IAD 18:02 6% 2% 0.6% no record
YX 4595 Republic LGA 10:22 DCA 11:56 7% 2% 0.6% no record
AA 4456 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 08:10 DCA 09:44 7% 2% 0.6% 36%
YX 4586 Republic JFK 08:44 DCA 10:16 7% 1% 0.6% no record
AA 4754 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 09:08 DCA 10:42 7% 2% 0.6% 61%
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 08:50 DCA 10:15 8% 2% 0.6% 83%
UA 1618 United EWR 09:52 IAD 11:09 8% 2% 0.6% no record
DL 5699 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → JFK 08:56 DCA 10:24 8% 2% 0.6% 60%
YX 3585 Republic LGA 15:11 IAD 16:48 9% 3% 0.6% no record
DL 5743 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → JFK 21:20 DCA 22:59 10% 3% 0.7% 68%
DL 5749 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 11:20 DCA 12:42 10% 2% 0.6% 78%
AA 4773 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 13:49 DCA 15:16 10% 3% 0.7% 76%
YX 4463 Republic JFK 21:50 DCA 23:15 10% 3% 0.7% no record
DL 5713 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → JFK 15:10 DCA 16:38 11% 2% 0.6% 81%
YX 5827 Republic LGA 21:19 DCA 22:52 11% 3% 0.7% no record
YX 4691 Republic LGA 15:39 DCA 17:05 11% 3% 0.6% no record
DL 5709 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 14:40 DCA 16:19 11% 4% 0.7% 61%
DL 5717 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 17:15 DCA 18:59 12% 5% 0.7% 62%
AA 4736 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 17:16 DCA 18:47 12% 4% 0.7% 74%
AA 4473 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 20:53 DCA 22:16 12% 3% 0.7% 91%
DL 5724 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 19:15 DCA 20:59 12% 5% 0.7% 50%
UA 2301 United EWR 15:00 IAD 16:35 13% 4% 0.6% no record
UA 1784 United Flight history → EWR 21:50 IAD 23:19 14% 3% 0.7% 79%
UA 8277 United EWR 19:51 IAD 21:09 19% 5% 0.7% no record
B6 955 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 21:30 DCA 22:59 19% 6% 0.7% 53%
UA 4437 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 06:30 DCA 07:46 16% 10% 3.1% 84%
UA 6242 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record LGA 10:29 IAD 11:55 18% 7% 4.3% 82%
UA 4446 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 08:09 DCA 09:32 20% 14% 5.4% 80%
UA 4444 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 09:00 DCA 10:23 23% 7% 2.4% 77%
UA 4172 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 11:00 DCA 12:23 28% 13% 3.7% 72%
UA 4472 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 13:00 DCA 14:23 29% 6% 13.9% 71%
UA 6244 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record LGA 19:28 IAD 20:55 31% 22% 14.7% 69%
DL 5076 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record JFK 16:40 IAD 18:32 38% 21% 12.7% 62%
UA 4433 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 14:00 DCA 15:23 40% 24% 4.3% 60%
UA 4432 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 18:10 DCA 19:48 43% 22% 9.6% 57%
UA 4457 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 20:20 DCA 21:53 55% 25% 9.5% 45%
UA 4486 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 15:30 DCA 16:57 58% 23% 4.7% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON