Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3849 Southwest	OAK 11:05	ABQ 14:24	9%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 2245 Southwest	OAK 15:36	ABQ 18:56	16%	3%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	2h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → ABQ 19:12DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest	5h 42m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	48m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:45 → ABQ 22:30DL 3729 · flown by SkyWest	4h 25m	89%	85%
Southwest Details →	OAK 10:35 → LAX 12:03WN 2297	3h 20m Los Angeles	LAX 15:23 → ABQ 18:13WN 242	6h 38m	100%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:56 → SEA 09:02AS 705	48m Seattle	SEA 09:50 → ABQ 13:53AS 327	5h 57m	37%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON