Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 2–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2958 OAK 06:39 → BUR 08:04 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4218 OAK 19:15 → BUR 20:36 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2958 Southwest	OAK 06:39	BUR 08:04	2%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 2609 Southwest	OAK 09:22	BUR 10:40	4%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 2959 Southwest	OAK 12:06	BUR 13:21	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2963 Southwest	OAK 17:14	BUR 18:31	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2962 Southwest	OAK 14:24	BUR 15:41	12%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 4218 Southwest	OAK 19:15	BUR 20:36	12%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON