Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1329 Southwest	OAK 12:40	GEG 14:47	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 690 Southwest	OAK 12:55	GEG 14:56	15%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452	6h 12m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	3h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:15 → GEG 23:55DL 1466	6h 50m	100%	87%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:55 → SEA 09:00AS 705	3h 24m Seattle	SEA 12:24 → GEG 13:37AS 2144 · flown by Horizon	6h 42m	99%	68%
Alaska Details →	OAK 19:43 → SEA 21:49AS 1359	1h 25m Seattle	SEA 23:14 → GEG 00:00 +1AS 1382	4h 17m	90%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON