Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:05, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	3h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:45 → JFK 06:06 +1DL 1909	10h 01m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	1h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	7h 47m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	1h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697	8h 17m	98%	87%
Alaska Details →	OAK 07:52 → PDX 09:29AS 2298 · flown by Horizon	1h 18m Portland	PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23AS 18	8h 31m	98%	82%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:01 → SEA 07:50AS 705	1h 57m Seattle	SEA 09:47 → JFK 17:53AS 26	8h 52m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON