Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2973 at 05:29 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–12%.

Safest bet that day WN 2973 OAK 05:29 → LAS 07:07 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2046 OAK 12:56 → LAS 14:44 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2973 Southwest	OAK 05:29	LAS 07:07	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 599 Southwest	OAK 09:35	LAS 11:09	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4290 Southwest	OAK 08:00	LAS 09:35	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4291 Southwest	OAK 19:54	LAS 21:24	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 950 Southwest	OAK 18:40	LAS 20:15	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1640 Southwest	OAK 11:32	LAS 13:07	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 498 Southwest	OAK 13:51	LAS 15:22	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 2046 Frontier	OAK 12:56	LAS 14:44	16%	9%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON