Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:05, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	3h 39m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069	9h 55m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	2h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → MCO 23:55DL 2056	8h 25m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:50 → MCO 18:10DL 1691	9h 10m	99%	75%
Alaska Details →	OAK 19:43 → SEA 21:49AS 1359	1h 10m Seattle	SEA 22:59 → MCO 07:07 +1AS 1371	8h 24m	87%	70%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:49 → SAN 08:25AS 2288 · flown by Horizon	1h 38m San Diego	SAN 10:03 → MCO 18:17AS 396	8h 28m	98%	64%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:01 → SEA 07:50AS 705	47m Seattle	SEA 08:37 → MCO 17:06AS 346	8h 05m	76%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON