Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3266 OAK 08:02 → PDX 09:57 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2045 OAK 18:04 → PDX 19:50 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3266 SkyWest	OAK 08:02	PDX 09:57	4%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2427 Southwest	OAK 10:09	PDX 11:52	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
OO 3372 SkyWest	OAK 18:34	PDX 20:42	5%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2222 Southwest	OAK 14:11	PDX 15:57	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2045 Southwest	OAK 18:04	PDX 19:50	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 2298 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 07:52	PDX 09:29	4%	2%	0.0%	96%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON