Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 257 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 257 OAK 06:14 → SAN 07:53 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 249 OAK 17:15 → SAN 18:47 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 257 Southwest	OAK 06:14	SAN 07:53	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
OO 3111 SkyWest	OAK 06:46	SAN 08:20	8%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 3001 Southwest	OAK 08:03	SAN 09:36	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3011 Southwest	OAK 09:56	SAN 11:29	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 3103 SkyWest	OAK 16:11	SAN 18:03	14%	6%	0.8%	no record
OO 3107 SkyWest	OAK 13:35	SAN 15:18	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1419 Southwest	OAK 15:43	SAN 17:14	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4553 Southwest	OAK 12:37	SAN 14:10	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2368 Southwest	OAK 13:52	SAN 15:23	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3008 Southwest	OAK 19:01	SAN 20:36	23%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 249 Southwest	OAK 17:15	SAN 18:47	25%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 2288 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 06:49	SAN 08:25	4%	2%	7.7%	96%
AS 2229 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 20:10	SAN 21:47	46%	6%	2.0%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON