Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2887 at 05:44 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 2887 OAK 05:44 → SEA 07:54 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 735 OAK 10:20 → SEA 12:21 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2887 Southwest	OAK 05:44	SEA 07:54	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
AS 705 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 06:01	SEA 07:50	10%	3%	0.8%	89%
AS 1359 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 19:43	SEA 21:49	18%	5%	0.7%	74%
WN 4412 Southwest	OAK 19:42	SEA 21:48	19%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 343 Southwest	OAK 13:24	SEA 15:27	19%	3%	0.4%	no record
AS 536 Alaska	OAK 14:57	SEA 17:00	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 735 Alaska	OAK 10:20	SEA 12:21	26%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON