Today: WN 3026 at 11:54 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–23%.

Safest bet today WN 3026 OGG 11:54 → HNL 12:51 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1125 OGG 13:44 → HNL 14:37 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 14 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3026 Southwest	OGG 11:54	HNL 12:51	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 3029 Southwest	OGG 17:22	HNL 18:19	10%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 3218 Southwest	OGG 17:30	HNL 18:26	10%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 3219 Southwest	OGG 19:00	HNL 19:56	10%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 3215 Southwest	OGG 12:00	HNL 12:56	12%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 3032 Southwest	OGG 18:54	HNL 19:51	12%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 3028 Southwest	OGG 15:36	HNL 16:33	13%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 3217 Southwest	OGG 15:45	HNL 16:41	13%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 3027 Southwest	OGG 13:43	HNL 14:40	15%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 3216 Southwest	OGG 13:50	HNL 14:46	15%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 1185 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 19:37	HNL 20:30	19%	5%	1.7%	74%
AS 1165 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 16:29	HNL 17:22	20%	7%	1.6%	65%
AS 1435 Alaska	OGG 17:49	HNL 18:41	20%	6%	1.6%	no record
AS 1135 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 14:34	HNL 15:27	21%	7%	1.6%	67%
AS 1425 Alaska	OGG 14:09	HNL 15:01	22%	7%	1.6%	no record
AS 1205 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 18:52	HNL 19:42	22%	6%	1.7%	75%
AS 1175 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 18:34	HNL 19:27	22%	7%	1.6%	69%
AS 1225 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 20:41	HNL 21:31	22%	5%	1.7%	74%
AS 1115 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 11:57	HNL 12:40	22%	6%	1.7%	83%
AS 1195 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 20:47	HNL 21:26	23%	5%	1.7%	73%
AS 1095 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 12:09	HNL 13:02	26%	5%	1.6%	77%
AS 1145 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 15:04	HNL 15:45	27%	8%	1.6%	65%
AS 1155 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 15:58	HNL 16:51	28%	7%	1.6%	68%
AS 1105 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 13:02	HNL 13:55	29%	5%	1.6%	84%worse than usual
AS 1125 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 13:44	HNL 14:37	29%	6%	1.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON