Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:05 pm at Kahului)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AS 1129 at 17:39, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AS 1129 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 17:39	ITO 18:17	17%	4%	0.8%	65%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hilo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 16:29 → HNL 17:22AS 1165	3h 41m Honolulu	HNL 21:03 → ITO 22:11AS 1132	5h 42m	100%	81%
Alaska Details →	OGG 15:58 → HNL 16:51AS 1155	2h 30m Honolulu	HNL 19:21 → ITO 20:29AS 1122	4h 31m	98%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OGG 16:29 → HNL 17:22AS 1165	47m Honolulu	HNL 18:09 → ITO 19:17AS 1112	2h 48m	74%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON