Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:05 pm at Kahului); 5 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 16:29, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 16:29 → HNL 17:22AS 1165	3h 17m Honolulu	HNL 20:39 → LAX 05:00 +1AS 804	9h 31m	100%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON