Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:30 pm at Kahului); 2 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 19:37, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops today


AS 558 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 21:52	PDX 06:22	9%	3%	0.7%	84%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 18:34 → HNL 19:27AS 1175	2h 24m Honolulu	HNL 21:51 → PDX 06:27 +1AS 961	8h 53m	99%	77%
Alaska Details →	OGG 18:53 → HNL 19:44AS 1205	1h 59m Honolulu	HNL 21:43 → PDX 06:11 +1AS 879	8h 18m	97%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON