Today: DL 394 at 21:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Safest bet today DL 394 OGG 21:15 → SEA 05:54 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 206 OGG 21:40 → SEA 06:17 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 394 Delta Flight history →	OGG 21:15	SEA 05:54	11%	3%	0.7%	96%
AS 244 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 15:15	SEA 23:59	22%	6%	0.9%	85%
AS 206 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 21:40	SEA 06:17	22%	5%	1.1%	82%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	OGG 18:34 → HNL 19:27AS 1175	1h 53m Honolulu	HNL 21:20 → SEA 05:59 +1AS 122	8h 25m	98%	63%
Alaska Details →	OGG 20:47 → HNL 21:26AS 1195	1h 54m Honolulu	HNL 23:20 → SEA 08:00 +1AS 900	8h 13m	98%	62%
Alaska Details →	OGG 19:37 → HNL 20:30AS 1185	1h 01m Honolulu	HNL 21:31 → SEA 06:22 +1AS 854	7h 45m	87%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON