Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 4751 OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 1927 OKC 19:16 → DEN 20:07 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4751 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 06:05	DEN 06:58	4%	3%	0.5%	94%
WN 705 Southwest	OKC 07:13	DEN 08:01	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 2609 United Flight history →	OKC 08:57	DEN 09:52	7%	4%	0.5%	77%
WN 404 Southwest	OKC 14:51	DEN 15:28	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 5490 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 11:30	DEN 12:28	8%	5%	0.5%	86%
UA 4768 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 18:43	DEN 19:44	8%	4%	0.6%	72%
WN 971 Southwest	OKC 19:00	DEN 19:38	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2422 United	OKC 16:58	DEN 17:45	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 1927 Frontier Flight history →	OKC 19:16	DEN 20:07	13%	5%	0.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON