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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3119 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 3119 OKC 06:07 → DFW 07:26 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2832 OKC 17:21 → DFW 18:24 · 19% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

AA 3119 American OKC 06:07 DFW 07:26 3% 3% 0.7% no record
AA 656 American Flight history → OKC 05:01 DFW 06:07 4% 3% 0.7% 92%
AA 2272 American Flight history → OKC 07:36 DFW 08:52 6% 3% 0.7% 86%
AA 6203 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → OKC 08:25 DFW 09:44 6% 4% 0.5% 86%
AA 1902 American Flight history → OKC 10:59 DFW 12:08 8% 4% 0.6% 81%
AA 3099 American OKC 12:15 DFW 13:21 10% 4% 0.6% no record
AA 2929 American Flight history → OKC 15:06 DFW 16:08 15% 5% 0.7% 72%
AA 2812 American Flight history → OKC 18:06 DFW 19:15 18% 5% 0.7% 35%
AA 2832 American OKC 17:21 DFW 18:24 19% 6% 0.7% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON