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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1262 OKC 06:45 → IAH 08:26 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5531 OKC 13:43 → IAH 15:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time
Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.
UA 1262 United OKC 06:45 IAH 08:26 8% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 5663 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → OKC 11:49 IAH 13:24 8% 6% 0.5% 98%
UA 5531 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → OKC 13:43 IAH 15:25 8% 6% 0.5% 85%
UA 6264 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record OKC 14:33 IAH 16:09 12% 9% 0.0% 88%
UA 6253 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record OKC 17:05 IAH 18:53 16% 5% 0.0% 84%
UA 6255 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record OKC 09:39 IAH 11:15 17% 3% 0.0% 83%
UA 6277 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record OKC 12:01 IAH 13:37 17% 11% 0.0% 83%
UA 4361 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record OKC 12:01 IAH 13:38 21% 12% 3.8% 79%
UA 4838 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record OKC 14:33 IAH 16:10 26% 11% 0.0% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON