Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 215 OKC 07:25 → LAX 08:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6285 OKC 09:04 → LAX 10:18 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 215 SkyWest	OKC 07:25	LAX 08:55	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 6378 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 13:37	LAX 14:58	7%	4%	0.6%	95%
AA 6384 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 08:37	LAX 09:57	8%	4%	0.7%	91%
OO 6285 SkyWest	OKC 09:04	LAX 10:18	10%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON