Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 3844 at 07:45, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 3844 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 07:45	MSP 09:58	6%	4%	0.5%	89%
DL 5142 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	OKC 11:57	MSP 14:03	24%	9%	0.0%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OKC 08:26 → SLC 10:07DL 4029 · flown by SkyWest	3h 53m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	9h 06m	99%	89%
United Details →	OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	6h 35m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	8h 01m	99%	89%
United Details →	OKC 08:57 → DEN 09:51UA 2609	3h 51m Denver	DEN 13:42 → MSP 16:46UA 732	7h 49m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	OKC 17:07 → ATL 20:29DL 2862	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	7h 32m	98%	87%
American Details →	OKC 06:40 → CLT 10:20AA 2273	2h 15m Charlotte	CLT 12:35 → MSP 14:30AA 1671	7h 50m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	OKC 11:09 → ATL 14:17DL 2490	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	8h 06m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	OKC 13:18 → ATL 16:30DL 2020	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 20:13 → MSP 21:50DL 9979	8h 32m	99%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON