Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5823 OKC 08:45 → ORD 11:11 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest OO 4744 OKC 17:48 → ORD 20:13 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5823 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 08:45	ORD 11:11	9%	6%	0.6%	78%
UA 2183 United	OKC 07:11	ORD 09:15	10%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 4994 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 07:01	ORD 09:08	12%	7%	0.6%	63%
MQ 4037 Envoy	OKC 12:52	ORD 15:07	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 5867 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 12:58	ORD 15:14	13%	7%	0.6%	76%
AA 6395 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 13:24	ORD 15:37	14%	8%	0.6%	73%
AA 6484 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 18:54	ORD 21:07	15%	9%	0.7%	65%
OO 4744 SkyWest	OKC 17:48	ORD 20:13	15%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON