Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3241 at 06:48 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 3241 OKC 06:48 → PHX 07:15 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3243 OKC 19:23 → PHX 19:45 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3241 Southwest	OKC 06:48	PHX 07:15	3%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 3054 Southwest	OKC 07:48	PHX 08:16	5%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 4686 Southwest	OKC 13:18	PHX 13:40	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 4894 SkyWest	OKC 14:44	PHX 15:26	11%	7%	0.6%	no record
OO 6215 SkyWest	OKC 14:58	PHX 15:30	11%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 3055 Southwest	OKC 18:17	PHX 18:58	11%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 3243 Southwest	OKC 19:23	PHX 19:45	13%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON