tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AS 405 at 14:55, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 405 Alaska Flight history → OKC 14:55 SEA 16:53 15% 4% 0.6% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Oklahoma City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:45 → MSP 09:58DL 3844 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889 7h 15m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 11h 01m 99% 86%
FrontierDetails → OKC 19:16 → DEN 20:07F9 1927 3h 17m Denver DEN 23:24 → SEA 01:14 +1F9 9421 7h 58m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → OKC 11:09 → ATL 14:17DL 2490 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472 9h 56m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → OKC 13:18 → ATL 16:30DL 2020 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 19:31 → SEA 21:36DL 714 10h 18m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → OKC 11:30 → DEN 12:28UA 5490 · flown by SkyWest 3h 30m Denver DEN 15:58 → SEA 17:59UA 2013 8h 29m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → OKC 08:45 → ORD 11:11UA 5823 · flown by SkyWest 2h 19m Chicago ORD 13:30 → SEA 16:09UA 1660 9h 24m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m Denver DEN 09:38 → SEA 11:26UA 1253 7h 21m 99% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON