Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1042 OMA 07:22 → CLT 10:54 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1079 OMA 14:56 → CLT 18:25 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1042 American Flight history →	OMA 07:22	CLT 10:54	7%	3%	0.3%	91%
AA 891 American	OMA 15:06	CLT 18:36	16%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 1079 American	OMA 14:56	CLT 18:25	16%	2%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON