Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5608 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	OMA 11:00	DCA 14:34	6%	2%	0.5%	84%
WN 3057 Southwest	OMA 11:17	DCA 14:57	10%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest	3h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983	6h 48m	99%	89%
United Details →	OMA 06:00 → DEN 06:49UA 1442	2h 41m Denver	DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789	7h 59m	99%	89%
American Details →	OMA 05:20 → DFW 07:20AA 2540	1h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:49 → DCA 13:04AA 1151	6h 44m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136	58m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	5h 02m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	2h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	6h 17m	98%	86%
United Details →	OMA 06:15 → IAH 08:37UA 2399	3h 18m Houston	IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654	8h 48m	100%	86%
American Details →	OMA 07:00 → ORD 08:51AA 3197	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 10:21 → DCA 13:26AA 523	5h 26m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:23 → ATL 13:38DL 2632	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950	7h 14m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON