Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 3–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2540 OMA 05:20 → DFW 07:20 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2269 OMA 18:18 → DFW 20:17 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2540 American Flight history →	OMA 05:20	DFW 07:20	3%	2%	0.6%	89%
AA 2135 American	OMA 09:37	DFW 11:35	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2823 American Flight history →	OMA 14:06	DFW 16:09	12%	3%	0.6%	63%
AA 2269 American Flight history →	OMA 18:18	DFW 20:17	12%	3%	0.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON