Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 3824 at 17:32, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3824 Southwest	OMA 17:32	HOU 19:46	6%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	6h 45m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:23 → ATL 13:38DL 2632	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	5h 59m	98%	88%
American Details →	OMA 14:06 → DFW 16:09AA 2823	2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:43 → HOU 20:04AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	5h 58m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	OMA 13:40 → ATL 17:03DL 1125	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	8h 11m	100%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON