Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 5295 at 06:17 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 5295 OMA 06:17 → LGA 10:08 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 5102 OMA 16:40 → LGA 20:37 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5295 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	OMA 06:17	LGA 10:08	9%	2%	0.7%	89%
WN 1705 Southwest	OMA 11:45	LGA 15:34	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 5415 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	OMA 13:22	LGA 17:33	15%	4%	0.7%	73%
WN 116 Southwest	OMA 13:12	LGA 17:04	20%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 5102 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	OMA 16:40	LGA 20:37	22%	5%	0.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON