Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–5% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3864 OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest OO 3936 OMA 17:29 → MSP 19:06 · 5% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 4% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3864 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 06:00	MSP 07:21	3%	2%	0.5%	87%
OO 3946 SkyWest	OMA 13:28	MSP 15:00	4%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 3831 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 10:52	MSP 12:15	4%	3%	0.5%	82%
DL 3512 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 08:05	MSP 09:30	5%	3%	0.5%	87%
OO 3936 SkyWest	OMA 17:29	MSP 19:06	5%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON