Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1486 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–15%.

Safest bet that day UA 1486 OMA 06:00 → ORD 07:48 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1476 OMA 18:40 → ORD 20:34 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1486 United	OMA 06:00	ORD 07:48	4%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 3197 American Flight history →	OMA 07:00	ORD 08:51	5%	2%	0.6%	89%
MQ 3712 Envoy	OMA 20:10	ORD 22:00	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3558 Envoy	OMA 12:57	ORD 14:40	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4042 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OMA 10:19	ORD 11:53	7%	2%	0.7%	93%
UA 600 United Flight history →	OMA 11:23	ORD 13:15	7%	2%	0.5%	80%
OO 5385 SkyWest	OMA 07:53	ORD 09:34	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 5511 SkyWest	OMA 13:01	ORD 14:58	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 739 United Flight history →	OMA 15:13	ORD 17:05	9%	3%	0.6%	69%
OO 6314 SkyWest	OMA 15:06	ORD 16:52	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1476 United Flight history →	OMA 18:40	ORD 20:34	15%	4%	0.6%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON