Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AS 312 at 15:15, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 312 Alaska Flight history →	OMA 15:15	SEA 16:57	8%	2%	0.5%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest	3h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	9h 00m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 08m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	11h 25m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest	3h 01m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	10h 04m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:23 → ATL 13:38DL 2632	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	10h 42m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:28 → DTW 13:30DL 4055 · flown by SkyWest	3h 16m Detroit	DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944	10h 14m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	OMA 14:02 → DTW 17:06DL 3762 · flown by SkyWest	3h 28m Detroit	DTW 20:34 → SEA 22:33DL 565	10h 31m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	OMA 08:10 → SLC 09:52DL 3874 · flown by SkyWest	3h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921	8h 25m	100%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON