tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 13:48, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1623 United OMA 07:08 SFO 09:02 8% 3% 0.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → OMA 06:00 → DEN 06:49UA 1442 2h 54m Denver DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506 7h 25m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Minneapolis MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756 8h 20m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → OMA 09:06 → DEN 09:55UA 2838 3h 30m Denver DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 8h 03m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → OMA 06:15 → IAH 08:37UA 2399 3h 56m Houston IAH 12:33 → SFO 14:35UA 2611 10h 20m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 10:27 → SFO 12:24DL 672 8h 59m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Detroit DTW 12:15 → SFO 14:17DL 469 9h 52m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → OMA 08:10 → SLC 09:52DL 3874 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902 5h 53m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → OMA 13:48 → DEN 14:35UA 1195 3h 19m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 7h 52m 100% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → OMA 16:21 → DFW 18:18AA 2269 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:07 → SFO 21:03AA 1430 6h 42m 57% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON