tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 2803 at 08:29, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2803 Southwest ONT 08:29 AUS 13:27 6% 1% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 13m Denver DEN 09:33 → AUS 12:54UA 8126 5h 54m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 3h 03m San Francisco SFO 18:18 → AUS 23:58UA 2332 8h 08m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → ONT 08:15 → DFW 13:25AA 2893 3h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:17 → AUS 18:22AA 3722 · flown by Envoy 8h 07m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 1h 15m Phoenix PHX 08:45 → AUS 13:30AA 1059 5h 19m 93% 84%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 3h 49m Denver DEN 20:27 → AUS 23:44UA 1943 8h 26m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 20:45 → AUS 22:07DL 1081 8h 19m 97% 82%
FrontierDetails → ONT 10:49 → DEN 14:10F9 2908 2h 01m Denver DEN 16:11 → AUS 19:27F9 1816 6h 38m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:28 → DFW 17:25AA 2956 3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:33 → AUS 21:37AA 2707 7h 09m 99% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ONT 14:48 → DFW 19:47AA 2635 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:33 → AUS 21:37AA 2707 4h 49m 71% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON