Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	1h 26m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	96%	87%
United Details →	ONT 06:55 → ORD 12:58UA 2226	2h 26m Chicago	ORD 15:24 → BWI 18:35UA 2737	8h 40m	99%	84%
American Details →	ONT 08:15 → DFW 13:25AA 2893	1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:22 → BWI 19:27AA 2805	8h 12m	95%	72%
American Details →	ONT 12:43 → DFW 17:51AA 2956	1h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:37 → BWI 23:43AA 2251	8h 00m	93%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON