tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Washington on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 1h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820 7h 35m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 10m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 6h 59m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 9h 04m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:58 → ORD 13:03UA 2226 1h 57m Chicago ORD 15:00 → DCA 18:11UA 1941 8h 13m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:28 → DFW 17:25AA 2956 2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077 8h 31m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 08:30 → DCA 15:59AA 3191 6h 48m 93% 82%
AmericanDetails → ONT 10:15 → DFW 15:14AA 1820 3h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:52 → DCA 22:59AA 2752 9h 44m 98% 81%
FrontierDetails → ONT 06:00 → DEN 09:24F9 1500 2h 01m Denver DEN 11:25 → DCA 16:59F9 688 7h 59m 97% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON