Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 3–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3074 ONT 06:59 → DEN 10:21 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2908 ONT 10:49 → DEN 14:10 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3074 Southwest	ONT 06:59	DEN 10:21	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2446 United Flight history →	ONT 05:00	DEN 08:20	4%	2%	0.5%	94%
WN 1082 Southwest	ONT 11:06	DEN 14:17	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 196 Southwest	ONT 13:48	DEN 17:01	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 1500 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 06:00	DEN 09:24	10%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 1263 United Flight history →	ONT 13:18	DEN 16:38	10%	4%	0.5%	84%
F9 2908 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 10:49	DEN 14:10	12%	4%	0.7%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON