Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2893 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–17%.

Safest bet that day AA 2893 ONT 08:15 → DFW 13:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2635 ONT 14:48 → DFW 19:47 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2893 American Flight history →	ONT 08:15	DFW 13:25	7%	2%	0.7%	87%
F9 4690 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 17:25	DFW 22:36	10%	6%	0.9%	76%
AA 1412 American Flight history →	ONT 09:46	DFW 14:33	10%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 1820 American Flight history →	ONT 10:15	DFW 15:14	12%	4%	0.7%	76%
AA 2956 American Flight history →	ONT 12:28	DFW 17:25	15%	5%	0.7%	71%
AA 2635 American Flight history →	ONT 14:48	DFW 19:47	17%	5%	0.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON