tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 38m Denver DEN 09:58 → EWR 15:59UA 2381 7h 59m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 1h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 7h 49m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 21:41 → EWR 23:52DL 2527 9h 04m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 1h 01m Phoenix PHX 08:31 → EWR 16:16AA 1327 7h 05m 94% 79%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:58 → ORD 13:03UA 2226 2h 15m Chicago ORD 15:18 → EWR 18:35UA 1236 8h 37m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → ONT 13:05 → PHX 14:29AA 2661 1h 41m Phoenix PHX 16:10 → EWR 23:59AA 1967 7h 54m 93% 78%
AmericanDetails → ONT 09:46 → DFW 14:33AA 1412 3h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:23 → EWR 22:56AA 618 10h 10m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 1h 12m Denver DEN 17:50 → EWR 23:44UA 2613 7h 26m 92% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON