tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 2h 00m Denver DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087 7h 53m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:55 → ORD 12:57UA 2226 1h 32m Chicago ORD 14:29 → IAD 17:25UA 587 7h 30m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 9h 53m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 1h 19m San Francisco SFO 16:34 → IAD 00:55 +1UA 1453 8h 05m 90% 79%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 1h 22m Denver DEN 18:00 → IAD 23:32UA 2408 7h 14m 94% 78%
FrontierDetails → ONT 17:35 → LAS 18:59F9 4206 3h 43m Las Vegas LAS 22:42 → IAD 06:19 +1F9 3494 9h 44m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 3h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:23 → IAD 18:20AA 1863 9h 46m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest 1h 14m Seattle SEA 16:05 → IAD 00:08 +1DL 541 9h 09m 95% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON