Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, UA 2267 at 06:00, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 2267 United	ONT 06:00	IAH 11:16	5%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	1h 50m Denver	DEN 10:10 → IAH 13:51UA 2030	6h 51m	99%	89%
United Details →	ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375	1h 47m San Francisco	SFO 17:02 → IAH 22:52UA 1649	7h 02m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708	48m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:36 → IAH 13:46DL 1532	5h 46m	93%	84%
Frontier Details →	ONT 09:48 → LAS 11:14F9 2232	3h 14m Las Vegas	LAS 14:28 → IAH 19:58F9 1966	8h 10m	99%	83%
United Details →	ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263	3h 50m Denver	DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419	8h 41m	98%	83%
United Details →	ONT 06:58 → ORD 13:03UA 2226	1h 22m Chicago	ORD 14:25 → IAH 17:22UA 2062	8h 24m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665	58m Atlanta	ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284	7h 36m	92%	79%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	1h 16m Phoenix	PHX 08:46 → IAH 13:33AA 2357	5h 22m	94%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON