Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day


B6 454 JetBlue Flight history →	ONT 23:51	JFK 08:13	14%	4%	0.7%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 22:34 → JFK 00:46 +1DL 1632	9h 58m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	7h 47m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	ONT 18:01 → SEA 20:50DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest	1h 50m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452	9h 49m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest	2h 09m Seattle	SEA 17:00 → JFK 00:53 +1DL 1044	9h 54m	97%	86%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	2h 24m Phoenix	PHX 09:54 → JFK 17:59AA 2339	8h 48m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	ONT 06:20 → SEA 09:15DL 3816 · flown by SkyWest	2h 19m Seattle	SEA 11:34 → JFK 20:15DL 415	10h 55m	98%	84%
American Details →	ONT 10:15 → DFW 15:14AA 1820	3h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:10 → JFK 00:01 +1AA 1248	10h 46m	98%	84%
American Details →	ONT 08:15 → DFW 13:25AA 2893	2h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:13 → JFK 21:00AA 578	9h 45m	97%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON