Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 3080 at 05:44 is the safest bet, 1% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11%.

Safest bet that day WN 3080 ONT 05:44 → LAS 06:57 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 554 ONT 14:16 → LAS 15:25 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3080 Southwest	ONT 05:44	LAS 06:57	1%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 927 Southwest	ONT 07:37	LAS 08:44	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4314 Southwest	ONT 09:45	LAS 10:53	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
F9 2232 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 09:48	LAS 11:15	7%	5%	0.8%	84%
F9 4206 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 17:35	LAS 18:59	11%	6%	0.9%	73%
WN 1037 Southwest	ONT 16:29	LAS 17:33	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 554 Southwest	ONT 14:16	LAS 15:25	13%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON