Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:48, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520	8h 36m	97%	87%
United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	1h 29m Denver	DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446	7h 46m	98%	85%
American Details →	ONT 10:15 → DFW 15:14AA 1820	3h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:07 → LGA 23:56AA 1375	10h 41m	98%	80%
American Details →	ONT 08:15 → DFW 13:25AA 2893	3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:49 → LGA 21:29AA 2513	10h 14m	98%	75%
United Details →	ONT 06:58 → ORD 13:03UA 2226	2h 49m Chicago	ORD 15:52 → LGA 19:07UA 511	9h 09m	99%	75%
United Details →	ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263	57m Denver	DEN 17:35 → LGA 23:30UA 2033	7h 12m	87%	74%
American Details →	ONT 09:46 → DFW 14:33AA 1412	3h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:47 → LGA 22:18AA 2570	9h 32m	97%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON