tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Seattle, leaving 18:01, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ONT 18:01 → SEA 20:50DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest 2h 25m Seattle SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 +1DL 448 10h 39m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 50m Denver DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354 8h 04m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162 9h 10m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 47m Salt Lake City SLC 09:35 → MCO 16:13DL 2032 7h 13m 93% 79%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 1h 14m Denver DEN 17:52 → MCO 23:41UA 259 7h 23m 93% 79%
FrontierDetails → ONT 17:35 → LAS 18:59F9 4206 2h 43m Las Vegas LAS 21:42 → MCO 05:30 +1F9 1876 8h 55m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:58 → ORD 13:04UA 2226 2h 27m Chicago ORD 15:31 → MCO 19:16UA 1929 9h 18m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 2h 36m Phoenix PHX 10:06 → MCO 17:34AA 603 8h 23m 96% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON