Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:48, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	10h 07m	100%	83%
United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	1h 25m Denver	DEN 09:45 → MIA 15:42UA 1418	7h 42m	98%	82%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	1h 28m Phoenix	PHX 08:58 → MIA 16:34AA 1968	7h 23m	96%	77%
American Details →	ONT 12:28 → DFW 17:25AA 2956	3h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:31 → MIA 00:28 +1AA 2090	9h 00m	99%	77%
American Details →	ONT 13:05 → PHX 14:29AA 2661	1h 23m Phoenix	PHX 15:52 → MIA 23:29AA 1222	7h 24m	92%	75%
American Details →	ONT 09:46 → DFW 14:33AA 1412	3h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:58 → MIA 21:55AA 2050	9h 09m	98%	72%
American Details →	ONT 08:15 → DFW 13:25AA 2893	3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:30 → MIA 20:35AA 3308	9h 20m	97%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON