Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 2–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1447 ONT 05:59 → OAK 07:22 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 692 ONT 14:32 → OAK 15:47 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1447 Southwest	ONT 05:59	OAK 07:22	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 249 Southwest	ONT 06:40	OAK 08:09	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2751 Southwest	ONT 10:15	OAK 11:44	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 690 Southwest	ONT 11:10	OAK 12:32	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3185 Southwest	ONT 17:56	OAK 19:18	8%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 692 Southwest	ONT 14:32	OAK 15:47	11%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON