tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via Phoenix, leaving 06:11, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2226 United Flight history → ONT 06:58 ORD 13:03 7% 2% 0.6% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 10h 05m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 3h 29m San Francisco SFO 18:44 → ORD 00:58 +1UA 1958 9h 08m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329 6h 15m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest 2h 49m Seattle SEA 17:40 → ORD 23:38DL 2108 9h 39m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:28 → DFW 17:25AA 2956 3h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:00 → ORD 23:39AA 2346 9h 11m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 3h 45m Denver DEN 20:23 → ORD 23:52UA 377 8h 34m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → ONT 13:05 → PHX 14:29AA 2661 3h 30m Phoenix PHX 17:59 → ORD 23:37AA 2569 8h 32m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 2h 35m Phoenix PHX 10:05 → ORD 15:38AA 332 7h 27m 97% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON