Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 544 ONT 07:23 → PDX 09:59 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 730 ONT 10:38 → PDX 13:04 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 544 Alaska Flight history →	ONT 07:23	PDX 09:59	7%	1%	0.8%	94%
AS 730 Alaska	ONT 10:38	PDX 13:04	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 2456 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	ONT 17:32	PDX 19:49	7%	2%	1.3%	93%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON