Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 503 at 06:39 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 3–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 503 ONT 06:39 → PHX 08:11 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3876 ONT 13:16 → PHX 14:31 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 503 Southwest	ONT 06:39	PHX 08:11	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3585 Southwest	ONT 06:11	PHX 07:33	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2475 Southwest	ONT 09:15	PHX 10:37	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
MQ 4171 Envoy	ONT 09:40	PHX 11:04	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3087 Southwest	ONT 09:49	PHX 11:05	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 1194 American Flight history →	ONT 06:11	PHX 07:30	8%	3%	0.7%	92%
WN 3276 Southwest	ONT 10:55	PHX 12:17	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3089 Southwest	ONT 15:27	PHX 16:44	12%	3%	0.4%	no record
AA 2661 American Flight history →	ONT 13:05	PHX 14:29	13%	4%	0.7%	79%
WN 3876 Southwest	ONT 13:16	PHX 14:31	14%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON