Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 3816 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 3816 ONT 06:20 → SEA 09:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 575 ONT 15:27 → SEA 17:48 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3816 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ONT 06:20	SEA 09:15	6%	2%	0.5%	94%
DL 4070 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ONT 11:59	SEA 14:51	7%	2%	0.5%	91%
DL 4031 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ONT 18:01	SEA 20:50	7%	3%	0.5%	90%
AS 607 Alaska Flight history →	ONT 06:02	SEA 08:44	11%	2%	0.7%	93%
AS 654 Alaska Flight history →	ONT 12:04	SEA 14:44	13%	2%	0.7%	90%
AS 575 Alaska Flight history →	ONT 15:27	SEA 17:48	16%	3%	0.7%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON